杨澜访谈录

“她的‘承认’印证了西方在乌克兰危机中的企图”_我的网站

花千骨

一 |     From 7 a.m. onward Sunday, ballot boxes in Poland started filling up so fast that spare ones had to be dusted off and more ballots needed to be printed. No one had anticipated such long lines throughout the country.Voting was to end at 9 p.m., but by law, polling stations stayed open to accept all who queued up, and the last one closed at 5 a.m. Monday. Some voters braved the night chill for up to eight hours to cast their vote.This resulted in a record turnout of nearly 74% -- highest voter turnout in Poland since 1919 and even higher than that of the first free elections after the fall of communism in 1989.The high turnout confirmed that millions of Poles agree these parliamentary elections may have been the most decisive in the last three decades. Either they would allow the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party to extend its eight-year hold on power for another four-year term, or they would opt for the return of a liberal democracy.Late poll figures univocally indicate that opposition parties stand a realistic chance to form Poland's next government.The PiS conservatives currently in power took 36% of the vote, but that doesn't translate into a seat majority in parliament, which would allow it to form a Cabinet. Latest polls show they would have 196 deputies in the 460-seat legislature as opposed to 249 seats won by the broad Civic Coalition of opposition parties led by Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council.Sunday's vote was a confrontation of two radically different visions of Poland's future.Conditioned by PiS propaganda that has continually been exploiting fears, PiS supporters claim only that party can secure Poland's sovereignty and protect its interests. The threat of illegal migrants is perhaps the most unifying emotion binding the PiS electorate.Supporters see PiS as their only protector from the alleged dominance of European Union bureaucrats in Brussels and their meddling in Polish affairs.PiS voters turn a blind eye to the fact that the country began to drift toward authoritarian rule, authorities neglect the EU's legal norms and the country continues on a collision course with the Union. Some €36 billion of EU COVID pandemic recovery funds have been frozen in a row over PiS judicial reforms. Many observers believe another PiS term would result in Poland leaving the European Union.Germany, Poland's by far most important trade partner and neighbor, is presented as another source of fear and the country is made out to be an ally of Russia, Poland's greatest foe throughout centuries. But if it's not the threat of German capital buying out Polish industry, then it's the threat of moral decay.In order to appeal to radical voters who accuse the government of extending excessive welfare to Ukrainian refugees, authorities cynically strained relations with Kyiv.PiS voters declare the fear that if the party loses, the next government would take away the generous social benefits PiS guaranteed, such as 14 pensions, child care payments and early retirement.Those who Sunday voted for parties forming the anti-PiS coalition declare they voted for a Poland securely rooted in the European Union.In radio and TV street interviews, they say they want to see Poland mend its strained relations with neighbors, particularly Germany and Ukraine.They do not want to see the Catholic Church influencing state affairs.Sixty-four percent of those polled declare they're in favor of same-sex marriages, and 70% want the new government to liberalize the current strict anti-abortion law.It is uncertain whether Poland's new government will be prepared to meet the more liberal postulates voters expect. The potential ruling coalition's unifying factor is its pro-democratic, pro-EU, anti-PiS stance. Other than that, they often differ in their proposed policies and outlook. They're a broad coalition composed of parties spanning from the far left to liberal conservative.The Civic Coalition's clear victory makes it the only faction in parliament able to constitute Poland's new government. But first, Polish President Andrzej Duda, a PiS nominee, will need to designate a prime minister. Most likely, against the odds, he will name a PiS candidate. That candidate will have little realistic chance of being approved by parliament, and Poland may be faced with many weeks of squabbling and chaos. Constitutionalists predict it may not be until December that Poland gets its new government.。

二 |     

  美国《政治报》近日刊发了对美国前副国务卿维多利亚·纽兰的专访文章。

三 | 纽兰在访谈中透露的一个信息受到关注——她承认,2022年秋天,当俄乌双方接近达成停火协议的时候,美国并未表示支持,也没有推动乌克兰与俄方达成协议。

四 |

  按照纽兰的说法,美国之所以从未真正向基辅施压以促进与莫斯科的谈判,是因为乌克兰的“谈判地位”始终不够强大。
  中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所所长孙壮志在接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播采访时分析认为,纽兰的言论再次印证了美西方在乌克兰危机问题上的基本立场——实现西方战略目标是停火止战的前提。
  俄乌冲突之所以持续这么长时间,其实是美国及其北约盟友的介入在某种程度上左右了冲突的进程。西方要通过这场冲突实现自己的战略目标,俄乌谈判始终会受到美西方的干扰。
  其实,2022年时战场形势是有利于双方达成协议的,当年4月双方在土耳其谈判取得一些成果,当年秋天也有可能实现停火,但是最后都没有签署协议,这与西方特别是美国有很大关系。

五 | 现在也是如此,西方的干扰增加了双方通过谈判解决问题、实现停火的难度。

  对于纽兰的表态,俄罗斯国家杜马(俄罗斯议会下院) 外交事务委员会主席斯卢茨基回应表示,俄罗斯不会放弃谈判,但不再幻想美国和英国会支持俄乌谈判,并且会放弃“为了自身的霸权而牺牲乌克兰人”的做法。

六 |

  对此,孙壮志认为,在俄方看来,西方不会放弃敌视俄罗斯的立场,双边关系也很难得到改善。
  俄罗斯认识到,西方不可能站在俄罗斯的立场,甚至是乌克兰的立场上来跟俄罗斯对话,西方就是要跟俄罗斯继续对抗,利用俄乌冲突消耗和遏制俄罗斯。双方无法建立比较正常的关系。
  只要西方将俄罗斯视为维护自身霸权利益的障碍,就不可能平等对待俄罗斯,双方的矛盾就很难调和。

七 |

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Published on:19:24:34


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